April 14, 2005
Oxford Analytica: OAS election
Published by Oxford Analytica

EVENT: On April 11, the Organization of American States (OAS) failed to elect a new secretary-general after the two candidates tied in five separate votes.

SIGNIFICANCE: The failure to agree a candidate will delay efforts to tackle the institutional problems facing the organisation, and marks the degree of divisions between the United States and South America in particular (.)

ANALYSIS: On April 11, the election of a new secretary-general of the Organization of American States (OAS) was thwarted when five rounds of voting each produced a 17-17 tie between the two candidates, Chilean Interior Minister José Miguel Insulza and Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez. The election, which requires a simple majority of the 34 member states, has now been postponed until May 2.

The outcome of the election -- in which Insulza had anticipated the support of 19 members -- was strongly affected by the decision of the third candidate, former Salvadorian President Francisco Flores, to withdraw on April 8. Flores had received the backing of the United States (probably because El Salvador has sent troops to Iraq, while Mexico and Chile both opposed the war), but even US lobbying had failed to generate support for his candidacy. Following his withdrawal, the US and Central American votes apparently shifted to Derbez. As a result, voting between the two candidates has broken down largely on regional lines, with North and Central America backing Derbez and most of South America supporting Insulza. This thus marks the first time since the OAS was founded in 1948 that Washington has failed to see its chosen candidate elected

Caribbean clout. In this scenario, the votes of the 14 Caribbean member states are crucial, giving rise to both political machinations and offers of economic benefits:

Insulza has proposed to appoint a Caribbean representative as assistant-secretary-general if elected (a position often held by the Caribbean in the past). More importantly, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has lobbied strongly for Insulza in the Caribbean, where a number of countries are dependent on Venezuelan oil (.)

Caracas competition. Chávez's strong support for Insulza has politicised the election, raising the prospect of renewed competition for influence in the region (and the OAS itself) between Caracas and Washington South American support for Insulza more widely also appears to reflect this competition, with an eventual Derbez victory likely to be seen as a sign of continuing US dominance of the OAS, and a win by Insulza interpreted as a sign that that dominance has been curtailed. (.)

The new secretary-general will face his first public challenge at the General Assembly scheduled for June 5-7 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida -- the first assembly to be held in the United States for over 30 years. (.)The US focus on Venezuela as the centre of its Latin America policy is likely to deepen divisions at the General Assembly and in regional relations more widely, to the detriment of the OAS (.)".