February 7, 2006
VENEZUELA/US: Bilateral tensions play to the gallery
"EVENT: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez on February 2 announced the expulsion of US Naval Attache John Correa.
SIGNIFICANCE: Correa has been accused of spying, in a case that demonstrates sustained tensions in US-Venezuelan relations.
ANALYSIS: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced the expulsion of John Correa, the US naval attache to Venezuela, on February 2. The Venezuelan government accused Correa of paying at least 26 informants in the Venezuelan military for information about weaponry and joint civil-military exercises. In response, the State Department announced that the chief of staff to the Venezuelan ambassador, Jenny Figueredo, had been declared persona non grata. She has been expelled from the United States, even though the State Department acknowledges that she has committed no offence.
The expulsions come at a time of heightened bilateral tensions:
- The United States continues to block the 1.7 billion dollar sale of four boats and twelve unarmed military aircraft from the Spanish firm CASA to Venezuela. The spare parts used in the manufacture of the aircraft are produced in the United States, which argues that this provides Washington with an automatic veto on the sale. The United States has cited security concerns as the primary reason for its move to block the contract between Spain and Venezuela.
- In a speech on February 2, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld drew parallels between Chávez and Hitler, saying that both were legally elected 'and then consolidated power'. Chávez subsequently responded in kind, saying that 'Hitler would be like a suckling baby next to George W Bush'.
- Caracas maintains that the defence contract is intended to enhance Venezuela's drug interdiction and border control capabilities, which Washington criticised as inadequate last year (see VENEZUELA/US: Bilateral rows undermine war on drugs - August 18, 2005).
- US policy. US handling of bilateral relations with Venezuela has proved counterproductive thus far, and there is no sign that this is changing. As Venezuela approaches the December presidential elections, in which Chávez is expected to achieve another majority, it appears that there will be continuity in the US policy of seeking to isolate the Chávez administration and highlight its 'authoritarian' characteristics and the threat that it poses to regional stability. This position is problematic on a number of counts:
- Most significantly, the United States works closely with the Venezuelan opposition movement, while the State Department has referred publicly to a number of serious and yet unsubstantiated accusations against the Chávez administration. This has served only to exacerbate Venezuelan perceptions of insecurity.
- By preventing Venezuela from upgrading its defence capabilities in this context, Washington has generated fears in Caracas that it is seeking to increase the vulnerability of the Venezuelan government to both internal and external threats.
- If Spain agrees not to allow the sale of military equipment to proceed, Venezuela will undoubtedly turn to other suppliers. In the event that Venezuela substitutes its Spanish partner for a Chinese or Russian supplier, as has been suggested by Caracas , this will serve to enhance a growing Chinese or Russian commercial presence in Venezuela. At the same time, a new contract could extend from the current Spanish agreement to supply non-offensive technologies to a more financially lucrative one that includes offensive weapons capabilities.
Security concerns. The allegations of spying against Correa come at a time when Venezuela is revising its military doctrine in line with altered interpretations of the security threats faced by the Chávez government:
- Last year, the Venezuelan armed forces introduced a new military doctrine of asymmetrical warfare. Devised by Major General Alberto Muller Rojas, this looks to the training and deployment of non-conventional forces in the event of a military attack on Venezuela.
- As part of this new strategic approach, the government is seeking to increase the military reserve force and territorial army to over 100,000 conscripts.
- Chávez recently proposed to buy enough weapons to arm 1 million Venezuelans against a potential US attack.
This growing militarisation of Venezuelan society is driven by the persistent fear that the United States is seeking to destabilise and replace the Chávez administration.
The Correa incident reflects the extent to which the Venezuelan government remains suspicious of the integrity of its armed forces. This is despite the mass purge of officers that followed the failed coup attempt against Chávez in April 2002, which Chávez maintains was actively encouraged by the Bush administration.
Despite this culling of personnel, there are evidently still pockets of potential disloyalty. In particular, while government control of the army and the air force is seen to be relatively secure, the navy is thought to still be something of a 'weak link'. The recent decision by the government to reinstate four retired generals (including Muller Rojas) and a rear admiral reflects an attempt by the administration to consolidate the orientation of its armed forces and the application of the doctrine of asymmetrical warfare across all services in what will undoubtedly prove to be a tense and difficult year in Venezuela.
Grassroots activism. Pressure by influential US lobby groups for action against the Chávez government is also growing:
- The conservative American Family Association recently joined with the Reverend Pat Robertson's Christian Coalition in a campaign that has called directly on the US government to intervene to remove Chávez. In August 2005, Robertson had called for Chávez to be assassinated, for which he later apologised.
- This has been paralleled by pressure in Congress by right-wing Republican elements for the Bush administration to adopt a tougher line on Venezuela. Following the announcement that Telesur, the regional broadcasting initiative largely funded by Venezuela, will adopt joint news gathering operations with the Middle Eastern broadcaster Al Jazeera, Congressman Connie Mack condemned the Venezuelan government for sponsoring 'terrorism TV'.
Other voices appear to be seeking to reduce bilateral tensions. The commander of the US Southern Command, General Bantz Craddock, recently stressed that the Southern Command is seeking to rebuild military relations with Venezuela, despite the difficulties involved, and that the main security threat in the region arises from poverty and social inequality. However, it is not clear that these voices will prevail in Washington, or that any shift in policy could result. At the same time, Chávez's recent threat to arrest any US diplomat caught spying, and his suggestion that he would close refineries in the United States and redeploy oil sales to alternative markets such as India and China, should Washington break off diplomatic relations will do nothing to strengthen more moderate voices in Washington.
CONCLUSION: Increasingly aggressive postures on both sides will hinder any possibility that Venezuela and the United States can move toward more amicable bilateral ties and defuse escalating tensions. Failure to do so risks further radicalising the anti-US thrust of the Chávez government's rhetoric, diplomatic and commercial policies. The US position is unlikely to generate regional support and will undermine the capacity of the domestic Venezuelan opposition to mount a credible election campaign".
