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November
23, 2004
Oliver L. Campbell: Venezuela
Sincor´s success deserves our commendation
(VHeadline.com) - "VHeadline.com
oil industry commentarist Oliver Campbell
writes: It is no secret that Petroleos de
Venezuela (PDVSA) is having trouble maintaining
production capacity (
)
However, there is some most heartening news
from the Strategic Associations in the Orinoco
Oil Belt. PDVSA and the Ministry of Energy
have hid their light under a bushel and
not told us of the tremendous success these
ventures have had.
Originally, the multinationals were not
keen to invest in the Oil Belt because they
had little experience of producing extra-heavy
crudes and of upgrading them into lighter,
more sellable crudes. They were thus granted
special concessions, including a royalty
of only one percent, to induce them to invest
in the area.
I have recently been in Caracas and asked
some colleagues what has made these venture
such a success. I was particularly interested
in the case of Sincor which produces a
crude of 8º API and then upgrades
it to 32º API. The first is like
thick tar and has a dark black color,
but the latter looks like slightly dirty
water.
This remarkable achievement has not been
given the dissemination it deserves and
I believe VHeadline.com readers
will be interested to know more about
Sincor's operations. I thank the colleagues
who provided me with the information on
which my article is based.
Administration: The shareholders
are TotalFinaElf (47%), Statoil (15%)
and PDVSA (38%). The operations are run
by Total and the top two executives are
both French. The company has around 1,000
employees of which about half are engaged
in production and half in refining (upgrading).
Drilling: This is carried out by
contractors using a system called horizontal
drilling. The well is drilled vertically
till it reaches the oil sands and then
horizontally so that it is in the form
of an L. The horizontal part of the tubing,
called a slotted liner, has longitudinal
perforations that allow oil to enter.
This is possible because the temperature
in the reservoir is around 50ºC and
the oil is quite fluid. As there is insufficient
pressure in the reservoir, the oil is
pumped to the surface by the very efficient
pumps the company itself has developed.
The other companies have also greatly
improved pump efficiency and this is a
main reason for the success in the Oil
Belt.
Up to 24 wells, in what is known as a
cluster, can be drilled from the same
site so that the L's at the bottom go
out in different directions. These wells
can reach subsurface targets a kilometer
away from the cluster site. The great
environmental advantage of these clusters
is that since all the surface pumps are
close together, much less land is used
for oil production. For instance, on the
east coast of Lake Maracaibo the wells
have been drilled at 300 meter intervals
whereas in the Oil Belt the clusters are
some 5 kilometers apart. This means not
only is less land taken away from agriculture
but that fewer electric cables, production
lines, etc have to be installed.
The advance in technology from vertical
drilling at specific intervals on a grid,
to directional drilling from one site,
and now to vertical and horizontal drilling
from one site means drilling costs have
gone down considerably.
Pipeline transport: When the oil
reaches the surface, it cools down and
congeals. In order that the oil can be
pumped without reheating it is then diluted
with naphtha. There are two parallel pipelines
which go from the production area to José,
a huge industrial complex sited far north
on the Caribbean coast, where the oil
is upgraded. One is used to pump the diluted
oil, and the other to send back the naphtha
which is separated from the oil at José
and reused time and time again.
Operating costs: Production costs
are about $3 per barrel and refining costs
(upgrading) around $6 per barrel. Both
include depletion and depreciation.
Thanks to their commitment and technological
success, Sincor have managed to achieve
lower operating costs than originally
envisaged. The upgrading costs may be
somewhat higher than for the other Strategic
Associations since the deep conversion
method used by Sincor, under license from
the patentee, upgrades the crude to 32ºAPI
rather than the 26º or 27ºAPI
achieved by the others.
Production levels: Sincor produces
and processes around 200,000 barrels per
day (bpd) and the intention is to raise
this to 220,000 in the near future by
expanding the plant at José. The
bottleneck is not production but upgrading
capacity. In the upgrading process, during
which sulphur and coke are both extracted,
there is volume loss and Sincor state
they are producing about 180,000 bpd of
upgraded crude.
Sales customers: Most of the upgraded
crude is sold to customers on the US Gulf
Coast under long term contracts.
Operational problems: Some of the wells
which have been active for years are beginning
to produce ever growing quantities of
water with the oil because of the aquifers
close to the oil sands. My colleagues
believe Sincor should have foreseen this
difficulty and taken remedial action much
earlier. The longer term problem (though
it will probably be overcome by events
mentioned below) is if production
will last out the 35 years of the joint
venture. However, the volumes of oil originally
in place (OOIP) are enormous and, taking
into account probable technological progress,
the present estimated recovery factor
of only 6 percent looks very conservative.
New production technology: The good
news is that much research is being carried
out on different methods that will substantially
increase the recovery factor. I will touch
on just two categories: fireflood and
steamflood. The most exciting of these,
in the former category, is called THAI
(Toe to Heel Air Injection). It
involves pumping air down a well to the
reservoir and causing in situ combustion
with temperatures as high as 450ºC
t0 600ºC. The beauty of this method
is that the heavy oil is upgraded in situ
by thermal cracking and converted to oil
of around 20ºAPI.
Much of the original research has been
carried out in cooperation between the
University of Bath in England and the
Alberta Research Council in Canada. They
estimate final recovery can be between
60 and 80% of the OOIP.
Shell de Venezuela carried out fireflood
tests in the Tia Juana field on the east
coast of Lake Maracaibo in the 1960s.
The main problem encountered was that
sulphuric acid was produced as a by-product
and it corroded all the metal tubing in
the wells ... as a result the project
was abandoned.
In the steamflood category, many companies
favor a method called SAGD (Steam Assisted
Gravity Drainage). Horizontal wells
are drilled in pairs into the oil sands,
one above the other. Steam is injected
into the upper well and softens the oil
so that it drains into the lower, producing
well by gravity. Various steam-flood methods
have been tried in the past and they are
much in use all over the world. Their
drawback is the large amount of energy
(natural gas) required to generate
the steam. However, SAGD also holds much
promise under the right conditions.
It is evident that if the recovery factor
in the Orinoco Oil Belt can be increased
to 60% (is this more than a dream?)
in the not-so-distant future, then
huge amounts of extra-heavy oil will become
available and, with prices not lower than
US$30 a barrel, Venezuela will reap a
great bonanza.
Sincor's Profitabilty: Obviously
Sincor do not divulge their financial
results to all and sundry. However, assuming
an average sales price of US$30 a barrel
and total costs of $9 a barrel, one comes
up with the following figures:
| Average
export price |
$30.00
|
| Total
costs |
(9.00)
|
| Royalty
at 16.67 percent |
(5.00)
|
| Profit
before income tax |
16.00
|
| Income
tax at 34 percent |
(5.44)
|
| Net profit
per barrel |
10.56
|
Assuming 180,000 bpd of upgraded crude
is produced, then 180,000 x 365 equals
65,700,000 barrels per year. If we round
down the profit to $10 per barrel, Sincor's
annual net income is some $657 millions.
The other three Strategic Associations
should also be doing well financially.
Together the four have compensated for
PDVSA'S loss of production capacity by
producing some 500,000 bpd.
At the same time they have provided the
Nation with substantial revenue in the
shape of royalty (recently increased),
income tax and PDVSA's share of net income".
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