October 1, 2004
VENEZUELA: Divided opposition sets sights on 2006
Published by Oxford Analytica
Copyright 2004 Oxford Analytica Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Immediately after the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE) announced President Hugo Chávez's victory in the August 15 recall referendum, the Democratic Coordinator (Coordinadora Democrática, CD) opposition alliance denounced the results as a fraud Teams of international election observers, and the Organization of American States (OAS), rejected this challenge to the legitimacy of the result. The CD was tardy in presenting evidence to substantiate its allegations and failed to attend an audit of ballots conducted by former US President Jimmy Carter and a Carter Center/OAS observation team. Since it has gained little international or domestic support for its campaign against the result, the CD has turned in on itself.

CD fissures. With elections for state governors, mayors and local legislative councils scheduled for October 31, the CD finds itself in a difficult position over two issues in particular:

1. Poll participation. Some sectors of the heterogeneous alliance rejected participation in the October elections and called for abstention, on the grounds that the CNE could not be trusted to administer a fair and transparent election. Relatively minor party organisations with little electoral strength, including Alianza Bravo Pueblo, La Causa R, Visión Emergente, Fuerza Liberal and Un Solo Pueblo, held this position. These groups withdrew from the CD in late September and will not participate in the elections.

Larger parties, including the historically dominant Acción Democrática (AD) and the Christian Democrats (COPEI) rejected this position. The opposition elected eight of the country's 23 state governors and nearly half the 335 mayors in the last regional elections, in 2000. Despite ongoing concerns over the 'fraud', these larger organisations believe it is important to participate in October: given their strong regional presence, abstention was considered 'electoral suicide'.

A third section of the CD has accepted the August 15 results and rejects fraud claims. This group is identified with Francisco Arias Cárdenas, a former military colleague of Chávez and the defeated candidate in the 2000 presidential election.

2. Primaries. The question of primaries has split the parties internally. This is particularly the case within AD and Cardenas's Union party, with some sections in favour of primaries to determine a unity option and others deeply opposed. In a number of key states, no agreement has been forged among opposition candidates. This opens up the possibility of electoral advances for pro-Chávez groups who will offer single candidates against a fragmented opposition field.

CD questioned. The alliance's August defeat can be attributed to a number of factors:
The CD lacked programmatic development and a 'pro-poor' platform, and was further undermined by inadequate mobilisation and the dominance of discredited political leaders.

Any position taken by the CD is only determined after a drawn-out process of jockeying for position.
The CD was specifically formed to remove Chávez from power. Since it has failed to do this, many opposition figures have questioned its utility. The 2006 presidential elections present the next constitutional opportunity to remove Chávez, and the opposition has been forced to consider whether the CD is the most appropriate vehicle for this challenge (…).

CD future. The CD will continue to exist as a point of information and mobilisation by anti-government groups, but no longer as the focus for the opposition. (…).

Government strategies. While Chávez's opponents continue to focus on issues of organisation and structure, the government is moving ahead with policy initiatives:
· Over the past fortnight, Chávez has announced measures relating to regional development, the introduction of free software, and health and education.
· Since the appointment of the young and energetic Andrés Izarra as information minister, the administration has embarked on a public relations exercise including a forum with foreign journalists and the launch of new publications and information portals.
· Unemployment has fallen from 17.8% in September 2003 to 14.2% this month (…)".